[Bitunix Analyst: Fed Minutes and PMI Take Center Stage, Hormuz Situation Influences Oil Prices and Global Risk Appetite] BlockBeats News, August 17 – This week, the market will focus on the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, August PMI, and earnings reports from retail giants such as Walmart and Target. Recently, U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail sales data have been weaker than expected, leading the market to price in only about a 27% chance of a Fed rate hike in September. Goldman Sachs also believes a September rate hike is 'highly unlikely,' easing short-term rate pressures. However, the FOMC minutes will still need to be scrutinized for officials' views on inflation and energy prices. If the minutes convey a hawkish tone, rate expectations could be repriced. On the other hand, whether the Strait of Hormuz can fully resume commercial shipping will directly impact oil prices and inflation expectations. Reports indicate that Iran and Oman have made progress on shipping routes, but actual shipping volumes remain far below normal levels. Thus, the situation is still considered a diplomatic development rather than a resolution of supply risks. If shipping continues to recover, crude oil risk premiums may decline; conversely, if negotiations stall or maritime conflicts escalate, rising oil prices will add to global inflation and rate pressures. Meanwhile, U.S. equities remain at elevated levels, but signs of localized weakness in consumer spending have emerged. This week, earnings reports from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot will further test the resilience of consumer demand. The market's biggest dilemma lies in the fact that corporate earnings remain robust, but high oil prices, cooling employment, and rising living costs are squeezing some consumers' spending capacity. If consumer resilience holds, AI and corporate earnings could continue to support U.S. equity valuations; if consumer conditions deteriorate further, the market will reassess the sustainability of corporate earnings and high valuations. Overall, the core focus of the market this week is not solely on rate hike or cut expectations but rather on whether the easing of monetary policy pressures can offset the capital cost pressures stemming from energy prices, fiscal financing, and long-term interest rates. The FOMC minutes, PMI, retail earnings reports, and Hormuz shipping developments will collectively determine the ability of risk assets to withstand high valuation environments.