Crude Comfortable Near $70, Risks Swing Toward $50 WTI crude oil's 10- and 20-year mean, median and mode are roughly $70 a barrel, with reversion implications into year-end. What's notable from my graphic is that price peaks and troughs have been declining for roughly two decades. Has the downward pattern changed due to the war in Iran? My bias is that the 2026 spike to near $120 may add fuel to the paradigm shift that has been a top energy-price headwind since 2008 -- the US turnaround to net exporter from importer of crude oil, liquid fuels and natural gas. Pendulum swings to the upper end of the price range have increased the US supply surplus and appear to be doing so again. I think the price at $82 on Aug. 14 is more likely to rotate below $70, and toward $50 by year-end, than to stay above $80, especially if the stock market backs up a bit. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tjr55akgzaiv {BI COMD} #crudeoil @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)