The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Aug 16, 2026 01:15
The US Treasury's reliance on short-term debt is rising: US Treasury bills currently account for ~21% of marketable Treasury securities, near the highest since 2020, when federal borrowing surged during the pandemic response. This is well above the 10-15% range seen from 2012 to 2019. By comparison, the peak during the 2008 Financial Crisis was ~34%. This comes as the US government has increasingly relied on T-bills, rather than longer-term notes and bonds, to fund its growing borrowing needs. If the Treasury keeps issuing longer-dated debt at the current pace through FY2027, T-bills could account for ~25% of total debt, the highest since 2004, excluding 2008 and 2020. However, this approach increases the government's exposure to short-term rate swings, making debt-servicing costs more vulnerable if interest rates remain elevated or rise again. The US debt crisis is in full swing.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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