[The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 67.5%, and in October is 53.3%] According to CME 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged by September is 67.5%, with a 32.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. By October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 53.3%, with a 39.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 6.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike. (Jin10) AI Analysis: The market's pricing overwhelmingly favors the Federal Reserve maintaining rates unchanged in the short term, reflecting the current monetary policy entering an observation window. The clear advantage in the probability of maintaining the status quo on rates indicates a market consensus that the rate hike cycle is nearing its end. This pricing logic suppresses expectations of aggressive rate hikes, providing a stable policy expectation anchor for financial markets. In subsequent decisions, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high interest rate levels to consolidate the results of inflation control. The market has already fully absorbed the lagging effects of policy tightening.