Totally confused today! The drop in the stock market and Bitcoin might be related to the retail data. This time, the retail data is seriously bad—previous value was 0.2%, expected was 0.1%, but the actual result not only turned negative, it dropped to -0.6%. Even though the data is pretty bad, it has lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike for the market. This is very similar to the non-farm payroll data—bad data, but it offsets some of the rate hike chances. However, this kind of bad data reflects the market's declining trust in the U.S. economy. Of course, we’re still far from confirming a recession, but whether it’s negative job growth, continued reduction in the labor force, or now retail consumption falling significantly below expectations, it all points to the U.S. economy cooling down. Previously, the market liked to treat bad data as good news because bad data meant a lower chance of rate hikes. The problem now is, if bad data keeps piling up, the market will eventually start worrying—can the reduced rate hike probability still offset the slowdown in economic growth? @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, prediction markets—all-in-one trading platform