Phyrex|Aug 14, 2026 17:47
My viewpoint on the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar is that it depends on the exchange rate. Is it convenient for the Chinese yuan to exchange for the US dollar or for the US dollar to exchange for the Chinese yuan? The exchange rate that is convenient can be considered weak demand, while the exchange rate that is inconvenient can be considered strong demand.
If it is really because the RMB has appreciated relative to the US dollar that one should hold RMB, why don't US dollar holders exchange more RMB and continue to hold US dollars.
At present, the annual facilitation quota for individual foreign exchange settlement and purchase by Chinese residents is equivalent to 50000 US dollars per person, but the capital account has not been fully convertible, and there are still channel and purpose restrictions on overseas investment. That is to say, the constraints on converting RMB to USD are significantly greater than simply selling USD and holding other assets in a free market.
Assuming a Chinese resident already holds Chinese yuan. If the expectation of RMB appreciation is very clear and the US dollar is not very attractive, then theoretically he does not need to go to great lengths to exchange for US dollars. But in reality, if there are still many people willing to use foreign exchange quotas, bear procedures, and cross-border restrictions on funds to obtain US dollars, this at least indicates that there is an asset demand behind the US dollar that cannot be explained solely by short-term exchange rate fluctuations.
On the contrary, a person who already owns US dollars has many choices in theory. He can continue to hold US dollars, buy US treasury bond bonds, stocks, funds, global assets, or exchange them for RMB assets. If the market generally believes that the RMB will continue to appreciate significantly in the future, and the risk return ratio of RMB assets is high enough, then naturally more and more US dollar assets should be actively converted into RMB assets.
From a practical perspective, converting US dollars to Chinese yuan is much simpler than converting Chinese yuan to US dollars. At least for normal trade, income settlement, and domestic use, it is not difficult for US dollars to enter the Chinese yuan system. What is truly more restricted is that RMB funds want to leave the domestic system and become US dollars before allocating overseas assets.
Although the USDT represents a decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar compared to the Chinese yuan, from a longer-term perspective, in terms of actual purchasing power comparison, what can Chinese yuan assets buy, whether it is convenient to exit, freedom of capital flow, asset returns, policy predictability, and global payment capacity are more cost-effective compared to exchange rates.
In my opinion, the RMB is more like the currency used in the LAN, while the US dollar is more like the currency used in the Internet. I can buy the RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell directly in US dollars, but even if I enjoy a better exchange rate than the US dollar in Chinese yuan, the RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell I buy may be more expensive.
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