水博乱乱|8月 14, 2026 11:37
Today's Market (1)
These past few days, going long at the lows feels just like shorting at the highs around 64-65k a few days ago...
If you're trading intraday, don't think too much about the bigger picture—grab 500-600 points and exit completely.
Whenever you aim for the bigger picture, you'll end up coming back to break even...
The entry models for going long at the lows on Tuesday and yesterday were basically the same...
Today's market is way too complicated... Let's break it down step by step...
From today's pending orders...
It's another day dominated by contract orders...
During the entire Asian session, contracts suppressed the price above 63.7k.
With insufficient spot buying, this kept the Asian session under pressure all day.
So, yesterday's rebound stopped right there.
That was the logical take-profit point for the low-entry model from yesterday.
Now, looking at the downside, there are still a large number of contract buy orders pending below the current low, around 61.8k ~ 62.5k.
Meanwhile, spot orders are pending at 62.5k and 62k.
These are basically the current support levels for the bulls.
Below 62.2k, there's a lot of liquidity from previous lows. (Chart 2)
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Based on the symmetry of the past two months... (Chart 3)
Every time the price dips, it usually drops by about 4.5~4.8%.
If we assume a 4.7% drop this time, it would land around 62k~62.3k.
In other words, if 62k holds, this can still be considered a controlled pullback (managed by algorithmic whales?).
But if 62k breaks and the price doesn't recover (after absorbing liquidity),
then we might see a drop of over 5%.
This would break the symmetry, combined with the fact that 62k is a key defense and stop-loss level for many bulls.
If confirmed as a breakdown, it could lead to the major dip that many are anticipating...
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