Art of Speculation|8月 14, 2026 08:37
Here’s how I view SPY / QQQ and the overall market:
Aside from individual stocks, the broader market will be a part of the long-term updates in the members' section. Many times, individual stocks themselves are fine, but short-term movements are determined by SPY, QQQ, interest rates, VIX, and overall market risk appetite. That’s why I always assess the current market environment before making any short-term trades.
When I analyze the market, I don’t just keep guessing the top because it’s gone up a lot, nor do I immediately turn bearish after one day of decline. I focus on whether the trend has been broken and whether the internal structure of the market is starting to deteriorate. In addition to the key moving averages and support/resistance levels of SPY and QQQ, I also consider VIX, market breadth, sector rotation, options GEX, Put/Call Flow, and the relative strength of major tech stocks.
Every week, I map out important levels in advance: where the first support is, where the second support is, at what point the original bullish thesis starts to fail, and where the next target is after a breakout. When the price reaches these levels, I then decide on my actions based on how the market reacts.
So, what I want to emphasize about the broader market is the importance of preparing for different scenarios in advance. We can’t control how the market moves, but if we have plans in place for rallies, pullbacks, or extreme scenarios, we won’t be completely driven by emotions when they actually happen.
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