Art of Speculation|Aug 14, 2026 08:11
Sentiment Analysis
The index is already near historical highs, but investor sentiment hasn’t entered a true frenzy yet. CNN Fear & Greed has returned to 67 (Greed), still a bit short of Extreme Greed at 75. I think it’ll go above 75. In the latest AAII survey, bulls are at only 34.7%, below the historical average of 37.5%, while bears are at 37.9%, above the historical average of 31.5%.
Right now, market prices are strong, but retail sentiment hasn’t fully caught up—there are still plenty of people doubting this rally. This combination of record-breaking indices and sentiment that isn’t overly optimistic resembles the Wall of Worry seen in bull markets. As long as the trend and fundamentals remain intact, these cautious, bearish funds could continue fueling the rally later on.
What to watch out for next: Fear & Greed entering Extreme Greed at 75, and AAII bullish sentiment becoming excessively euphoric and optimistic.
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