Art of Speculation|Aug 14, 2026 05:20
The market looks calm today, but there are undercurrents surging
1. The market continues to hit new highs, but 7800 has entered a clear option pressure zone.
SPX rose 0.65% today, closing at 7799.19, almost accurately stopping at the core Strike of 7800.
The technical aspect is still very strong. SPY has already surpassed the previous high of 776 in volume, and continues to operate above EMA 21 at the hourly level. Currently, there is no clear peak structure seen. As long as we hold onto 767, we should still treat the callback as Buy the Dip. If 767 falls, then look at 756-760.
But the option structure is beginning to limit the short-term upward space. There is a net royalty flow of approximately negative $80 million around 7800, mainly from Sell Call+Buy Put. In addition, with a Call Exposure of approximately 4.4B near SPY 775, the index is likely to be limited to the 7750-7850 range before next Friday's OPEX.
So my understanding is that the trend continues to be bullish, but the short-term has already entered the resistance zone. Even if it breaks through 78007850-7900, it will encounter more obvious selling pressure. The odds for continuing to chase the index here are not as good as they were a few days ago. The best thing is to do high selling and low buying before next Friday.
QQ has also achieved a breakthrough, with 726 being the most important position next.
QQ has already surpassed the previously suppressed 726, and the technical goal continues to look at the 737. As long as the market continues to close above 726, this is a normal continuation of the breakthrough. If it falls back below 726, we need to start preventing Bull Trap.
So now QQ's transactions are very simple. If you continue to see more 737 above 726. Fall back below 726, beware of false breakthroughs.
3. VIX has been compressed to 14-15, but there is a deviation here
VIX is currently around 14.5, and there are a large number of positions near the 14/15 Strike that have lowered volatility. The entire market has entered a very obvious Vol Compression.
The most comfortable transaction in this environment in the past has always been Sell Premium. But be careful that the market has reached a new high, and VIX has not continued to decline significantly, but has slightly increased.
Under normal circumstances, stocks should rise while VIX should fall. Both are rising at the same time, indicating that the divergence within the market is widening. On one hand, funds continue to chase Call and push short, while on the other hand, funds have begun to buy Put at high levels for protection.
4. The index has reached a new high, but the sentiment of individual investors has become increasingly pessimistic.
In the past four weeks, AAII Bullish Sentiment has been decreasing from 41.2% to 28.9%, while Bearish Sentiment has been rising for four consecutive weeks to 46%. This has formed a very obvious deviation from the price.
So I won't go short just because the market is too optimistic, because the reality is the opposite: prices are hitting new highs, but many people simply don't believe in this round of price increases. This is what I previously said about rising in suspicion. As long as the market continues to rise, off exchange funds will be constantly forced to recover.
Another important change today is that the market is truly expanding comprehensively
In the past few months, when AI hardware increased, SaaS did not increase, and when SaaS increased, storage took a break.
But starting today, All Cylinders Running appears:
SaaS: WDAY SHOP PLTR ADBE
Storage/AI Hardware: SNDK WDC $MU starts simultaneously on both sides.
This is much healthier than simply pulling the index with weighted stocks, as it indicates that the market width is expanding.
Taking $MU as an example, it was mentioned in yesterday's comments that the logic of short selling along the daily EMA 21 has failed, and once you stand on the daily EMA 21, you have to be bullish. It has finally broken through the consolidation range of the past few months, and the option GEX shows that 1000 Strike is forming a clear Gamma Magnet.
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