The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 65.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 65.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 34.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by October is 50.1%, with a cumulative 25 basis point hike at 41.8% and a cumulative 50 basis point hike at 8.1%.