After today's PPI data update, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September has decreased. However, there are still Fed officials stepping up to say that rates should be raised, mainly due to inflation concerns. Although July's data shows a decline, that's because the average oil price in July was even lower than in June. But currently, the average gasoline price in August is higher than in July, so there's a significant chance that inflation in August will rebound. Unless the U.S. and Iran resolve their conflict quickly or ensure smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz, even maintaining current oil prices isn't good news for U.S. inflation. From my personal perspective, the probability of a rate hike in September is not high. Although I mentioned earlier that August's average oil price is higher than July's, it's still lower compared to March, April, and May. There were no rate hikes in those three months, so the chances of a September hike are slim—unless the conflict escalates further with no signs of a ceasefire, which would be a different story. As for rate cuts, the probability still seems low for now. But if Trump manages to resolve the Hormuz issue before September, August inflation continues to decline, and the Hormuz problem is resolved once and for all, then the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year isn't entirely zero. At the very least, it's much higher than the probability of a rate hike. Of course, the most likely scenario is maintaining the current interest rate, which would mean Trump and the Republicans might end up feeling frustrated. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, prediction markets—all-in-one trading platform.