Mr. Xiaolong's Today's Perspective ---PPI data freshly released ❗ Xiaolong's latest review: The 'blonde girl' signal of mild inflation ❓ ️ Dear friends, the PPI data for Americans has just been released, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and a previous value of 5.5%, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI increased by only 0.2% compared to the previous period, up 4.2% year-on-year. This data is more reassuring than last night's CPI. I will interpret the truth behind the PPI data from three perspectives: (1) The 'second foot' of inflation cooling has landed. Last night, CPI confirmed that demand side inflation is slowing down, and tonight PPI confirmed that production side inflation is also slowing down. If upstream costs do not continue to rise, downstream consumer prices lack a basis for rebound. What's even more rare is that last night's CPI was 0.1% month on month, and tonight's PPI was 0% month on month. The two data directions are completely consistent, and there is no deviation between "upstream price increase, downstream price decrease" or "upstream price decrease, downstream price increase". The inflation transmission chain is breaking, which is the most ideal combination for both the market and the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve can rightfully say, 'We have made progress in controlling inflation.'. (2) The scene of the blonde girl is taking shape. PPI remains stable, CPI is moderate, and although oil prices are still around $83, once the US Iran negotiations land, oil prices are likely to fall. Inflation is not out of control, the economy is not in recession, and the Federal Reserve does not need to urgently cut interest rates or raise interest rates again. The soft landing path is being verified step by step by data. (3) Converting bonds requires moderate inflation, which is precisely the scenario that long-term traders like the most. Global governments are heavily indebted, deflation is a dead end, and hyperinflation is a social disaster. Only moderate inflation can trade time for space and slowly digest debt in economic growth. Stability overwhelms everything. Without black swans and drastic fluctuations, high-quality assets can continue to outperform cash in mild inflation. This is the 'stable happiness' that long-term traders need the most. So, CPI+PPI double confirmation of inflation cooling, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September further decreases. This is positive for the US stock market and a relief of macro pressure for BTC, but whether BTC can break through 64500 with the momentum still depends on incremental funds. As soon as this PPI data was released, the price of Bitcoin couldn't wait to rebound! Our current trading strategy is: (1) BTC will continue to be observed below 64500 in the short term. If the positive sentiment of PPI drives the opening of the US stock market to strengthen, pay attention to whether it can break through 64500 with increased volume; (2) If obstructed again, continue to maintain a bearish judgment; (3) In a mild inflation environment, the long-term fixed investment BTC strategy is not affected. The weakening of US bond yields and the US dollar is a medium-term positive for zero interest assets like BTC, but transmission will take time. The short-term trend of BTC is still dominated by the game of existing funds, and the narrow range oscillation of the grinding market continues!