律动BlockBeats|Aug 13, 2026 09:46
Citigroup maintains its' buy/high-risk 'rating on Nebius, with a target price of $278
According to BlockBeats, on August 13th, Citigroup stated in its latest report that Nebius' current growth bottleneck is not demand, but rather the pace of capacity deployment. The bank maintains a 'buy/high-risk' rating on Nebius with a target price of $278. The report states that Nebius had strong revenue in the second quarter, influenced by asset SLA income Token Factory、Tavily、 Drive higher utilization and on-demand demand. The management stated that market demand remains very strong, with multiple buyers behind each GPU, and the growth in order backlog comes from larger average order sizes and mid-term contract increases in the core AI cloud business. In recent AI trading on the US stock market, Neoclouds is becoming a new focus. After Nvidia's $500 billion AI infrastructure financing plan, CoreWeave's financial report, and Lumentum's strong guidance, the market is beginning to search for who can get GPUs, who can finance website construction, and who can convert computing power into revenue. Citigroup specifically mentioned that approximately 50% -60% of Nebius' infrastructure capital expenditures are supported by customers' upfront prepayments. From a cash perspective, the payback period for the project can be less than one year, approximately 10 months. This helps alleviate market concerns about the funding pressure of the Neocloud model. The real test will be in the second half of the year. Nebius expects that most of the contracted production capacity will go online in the second half of 2026, and Microsoft's related deployments will follow a similar pace. The goal of connecting power from 800MW to 1GW can still be achieved, but transitioning to active power still requires network testing, integration, and debugging, resulting in a lag in revenue recognition. The management also stated that the $7 billion to $9 billion ARR framework does not rely on a single project, but is driven by a combination of utilization, pricing, and capacity growth. Most of the 5GW contracted production capacity is expected to gradually ramp up in the next two to three years. Citigroup still reminds that Nebius is a high-risk target, with risks including customer concentration, high capital expenditure intensity, uncertain GPU supply and financing conditions. In other words, Nebius' AI computing power story is still clear, but the stock price will be highly dependent on delivery pace.
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