看不懂的SOL|Aug 13, 2026 07:15
Brothers, the core of what I want to talk about is not how much CPI has risen, but that the market may be entering a new pricing logic.
In the past, people often understood inflation as the increase in residents' income, strong consumption, and ultimately a comprehensive rise in prices of goods and services. But this round is different, what really drives demand is the large-scale capital expenditure brought by AI.
The demand for AI model training and inference is increasing, driving computing power first and then transmitting it to GPUs, advanced processes HBM、 Server memory, optical modules, data centers, and power equipment. Google, Microsoft, Meta and other giants are constantly increasing their investment in CapEx, essentially rebuilding an AI era infrastructure.
This will have a two-stage impact.
In the short term, a large amount of funds flowing towards chips, equipment, electricity, and engineering construction may push up the prices of capital goods. The money earned by enterprises will continue to be invested in expanding production, so even if household consumption is not completely overheated, some industries will still experience significant inflationary pressure.
But in the medium term, as new production capacity gradually releases and unit computing power costs decrease, AI begins to improve enterprise efficiency and profit margins, and productivity may actually increase. That is to say, investments that appear to be inflationary today may become a cost reducing force in the future.
That's also why the Federal Reserve may not simply replicate past interest rate hike cycles in the future. CPI is just one reference, what is more worth paying attention to are productivity, potential GDP, neutral interest rates, and whether this round of AI investment can ultimately be converted into real profits.
For the market, the main trend is also changing.
Previously, people mainly traded on "when to cut interest rates", but in the future, they may be more concerned about "who can turn AI investment into revenue and cash flow". Computing infrastructure, semiconductors HBM、 Server memory, optical modules, and power equipment will still benefit, but it's not just about the demand story, but also about capacity utilization, return on capital, and free cash flow.
What truly needs to be revalued in this round is not just inflation and interest rates, but the productivity revolution being driven by AI. The winner of the future market may no longer be who first bet on interest rate cuts, but who truly benefits from the conversion of AI capital expenditures into profits.
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