July CPI is in line with expectations, limited market impact • CPI YoY: 3.4%, expected 3.4%, previous 3.5% • Core CPI YoY: 2.5%, expected 2.5%, previous 2.6% After the CPI release, BTC briefly surged to $64,400 but quickly pulled back to around $63,500. This data isn’t exactly bad news for the Fed’s September rate cut expectations, but it also didn’t provide the market with a strong enough “bullish catalyst.” What’s really worth paying attention to, though, is the geopolitical news. According to reports, a senior Iranian official stated that there are currently no discussions between Iran and the U.S. about extending the ceasefire. Moreover, Iran claimed that the U.S. violated the agreement within 48 hours of reaching a temporary deal and withdrew a few days later. What does this mean? Previously, the market was trading on the expectation of a “ceasefire extension.” If this expectation starts to weaken, risk-off sentiment could rise again, and short-term market volatility might significantly increase. So here’s the current outlook: CPI: In line with expectations, limited impact Fed: No new strong signals for now Geopolitics: Could become a variable for short-term market moves BTC: Likely to continue consolidating within the current range, waiting for a clear directional breakout Now’s not the time to get overly excited about a single green candle, nor is it necessary to panic over a pullback. Macro hasn’t provided answers, and geopolitics has added new variables. Moving forward, focus on two key factors: Fed rate cut expectations + geopolitical developments. BTC’s next real move might be hidden in these two signals. #Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #FederalReserve