Overview of Core Events in Global Financial Markets August 13th, 2026 (Thursday) The CPI data has been released, but the market has not moved in a unilateral direction and has instead fallen into a more complex game. 1、 Yesterday's CPI review: data in line with expectations, showing a trend of first rising and then falling. Last night at 8:30, the US July CPI was released, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% (previous value 3.5%), a core CPI of 2.5% (previous value 2.6%), and a month on month increase of 0.1%, all in line with market expectations. After the data was released, the market experienced a typical trend of "buying expectations, selling facts". The gold data had risen by about $10 before, surged to $4421 after its release, and then quickly fell back by about $30 to around $4391. The US dollar index first fell and then rose, fluctuating by about 10 points, while the 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds fell by about 2.2 basis points to 4.661%. The market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September to decrease from about 50% before the data was released to about 40%. But analysts generally believe that this CPI is only "eliminating uncertainty" and has not changed the market's dependence on subsequent data. There will be August CPI and employment reports before the September meeting. 2、 Overnight stock market and commodity market performance US stock market: The three major indices fluctuated, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.04%, the Nasdaq rising 0.54%, and the S&P 500 rising 0.26% to close at 7748.5 points, approaching historical highs. AI concept stocks have become the biggest highlight: CoreWeave's financial report exceeded expectations and rose 19%, Nebius surged 34%, Dell rose nearly 10%, and Micron rose nearly 5%. Large tech stocks are diverging, with Nvidia rising over 3% and Microsoft falling over 2%. The VIX panic index has fallen to its lowest level since January, and market sentiment has rebounded. The US dollar index fluctuated slightly and closed around 99.8. Gold: Spot gold closed around $4408 per ounce, up about 0.9%. But there was a sharp drop in early trading today, falling below the $4400 mark at one point. Crude oil: WTI closed at $83.27 per barrel, while Brent closed at $88.98 per barrel, both slightly up 0.08%. Despite a significant increase of 17.4 million barrels in US crude oil inventories (the largest weekly increase in three years), the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz negotiations offset the negative impact on inventories. Bitcoin: reported around 63400-63500 US dollars, briefly rose 64400 during trading and then fell back, with a slight decrease of about 0.4% in 24 hours. According to Glassnode's data, spot buyer demand is weak, and BTC is sandwiched between a median realized price of $63000 and a short-term holder cost base of $68700, making the market still fragile. 3、 Today's focus is on The People's Bank of China has released its second quarter monetary policy implementation report. Yesterday's report clearly stated that "we will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy" and emphasized "timely planning for practical and effective incremental policies in Taiwan, and increasing efforts to counter cyclical adjustments". This is an important signal for the direction of domestic liquidity. ️ The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect nerves There has been no breakthrough in the US Iran negotiations, with Trump claiming that "the US has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz" and Iran insisting that the US accept the conditions, causing oil prices to fluctuate repeatedly during trading. Pakistan has stated that the deadline for the US Iran memorandum of understanding can be extended, but the substantive agreement has not yet been implemented. July PPI data for the United States (20:30 tonight) Tonight, the Producer Price Index will be released, which is directly included in the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure (PCE) and has received considerable market attention. 4、 Today's core judgment (1) The CPI met expectations and eliminated the maximum short-term uncertainty, but did not provide new trend directions, and the market entered the stage of "digesting data and waiting for the next catalyst"; (2) The strong financial report of the AI sector has driven the rebound of US technology stocks, but BTC has not followed suit, and the game pattern of existing funds remains unchanged; (3) The negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz remain the biggest geopolitical variable, and the direction of oil prices directly affects global inflation expectations; (4) The moderate easing stance of the central bank provides medium-term support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. If tonight's PPI data is consistent with the direction of CPI, it may further consolidate the narrative of "inflation under control"; If unexpected events occur, market expectations will be revised again. Be patient before the data is released. If Bitcoin rebounds in the future, continue to short with small positions to shock the market and move in and out quickly. Only by understanding the macro can we understand the trend direction. What do you think of the market reaction to CPI last night? Welcome to the comment section to discuss your observations.