[Ahead of CPI Data, Traders Bet on a 50% Probability of a September Rate Hike, Treasury Market Pricing Leans Toward Moderate Data] BlockBeats News, August 12: Based on swap market trading activity, traders are currently pricing in approximately a 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. Following the unexpected weakening of July's non-farm payrolls, Wall Street remains sharply divided—almost 50:50—on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25bp in September. Under the leadership of Walsh, the Fed has significantly reduced forward guidance, forcing the market to rely more heavily on hard data to determine policy direction. The impact of July's CPI data is notably asymmetric—moderate inflation data could further weaken the case for a rate hike, while hotter-than-expected data could quickly re-establish a September rate hike as the baseline scenario. For the "global asset pricing anchor," the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the current bond market's risk-reward profile has already tilted significantly toward pricing driven by "a rapid decline in yields due to moderate July CPI." This is primarily due to the positive resonance between macroeconomic data and the CTA bond market positioning structure. (Zhitong Finance)