Tonight's CPI—what really matters isn't 3.4%, but the core 0.2% At 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. CPI will be released. Market expectations are year-over-year at 3.4% and core month-over-month at 0.2%. Since the probability of a rate hike in September is still 50/50, even a 0.1% deviation in the core data could trigger a repricing of U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and $BTC. My take: Overall inflation will continue to cool, but the core data won't look particularly great. If the core comes in below 0.2%, it’s bullish for risk assets, and $BTC could have a chance to break through $64,500 to $65,000, with further potential to test $66,000. If the core hits 0.3% or higher, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar might strengthen, and $BTC could risk losing the $63,000 level, potentially dropping to $62,500. If the data aligns with expectations, I lean toward $BTC spiking first, then consolidating. Don’t rush to chase the first candlestick tonight. The real direction will be determined in the 30–60 minutes after the release—watch whether U.S. Treasury yields pull back and whether $BTC can hold its breakout level.