Late August may be the real turning point The recent judgment given by Mark Newton of Fundstrat, I think, is quite consistent with the current market trend. His core viewpoint is that 2026 is not a year of unilateral bull or bear, but a year of high volatility and strong rotation. That is to say, the market may continue to rise, but the process will not be very comfortable. There will be constant switching between sectors, with weak technology today and strong small cap tomorrow. Semiconductors go first, followed by medical supplements. The index may not seem to have moved much, but it has actually been fluctuating all along. That's also why many people feel that the market is difficult to do recently. Because the money making effect increasingly relies on selecting the right sector and pace. Mark Newton believes that the truly noteworthy time window may be in mid to late August. At present, the S&P rebound has not fully recovered, and there is still a chance to continue testing the 7800 area in the short term. If it really reaches around 7800, the structure starting from the low point in this round may complete a relatively complete five wave rise, and then the probability of the market entering a large-scale three wave adjustment will significantly increase. In the short term, there is still a tendency towards excess, but the closer we get to mid to late August, the more we need to start preventing a temporary rebound. However, even if there are adjustments later on, he expects the magnitude to not be particularly exaggerated, about 5% -7% of normal and healthy washing. Several key positions are also quite clear: 7500 is the first warning line. If we only step back but hold onto 7500, the bullish structure is basically still there. What really needs to be defended is 7300. If 7300 falls, then there is a possibility to further explore 7000 below. Usually, before a true major correction comes, at least a few things will deteriorate together: Firstly, the market width is starting to decrease But now it's just the opposite. Russell 3000's A/D Line has reached a historic high, with over 60% of stocks still above the 200 day moving average. This indicates that there are not only a few Mega Cap stocks supporting the index, but also many stocks participating in the upward trend. Secondly, emotions should be extremely excited But currently, the market sentiment has not reached the level where everyone is crazily bullish and individual investors are chasing high positions. Even many funds are still very cautious. From a reverse perspective, this actually indicates that the top is not yet as mature. Thirdly, funds are usually redirected towards defense in advance Before the real risk off comes, it is usually seen that defense sectors such as Staples and Utilities begin to outperform significantly. But now there isn't. On the contrary, Discretionary is significantly stronger than Staples, indicating that funds are still willing to take risks. So currently, the entire market still has a relatively clear risk on structure. Mark Newton's assessment on the technology stock side is that the worst stage for technology stocks is likely to have passed. Although QQ has been sideways organizing for nearly two months and has been lacking in that very attractive technology buying point, semiconductors have now broken through first, and some Mag 7 and software have also begun to strengthen again. This is a relatively positive signal. However, he did not believe that QQ would immediately reach a new high. The more likely path is for technology to first establish a bottom, then slowly spread, and finally it is Nasdaq 100's turn to complete the breakthrough. Currently, semiconductors are relatively the strongest, but not all segments are good either. For example, DRAM/storage is still relatively weak, while WDC and SNDK are still under pressure. So the repair of technology is still structural and has not yet fully exploded. Another interesting sector is Healthcare. The healthcare sector has broken the relative downward trend since 2023, with capital inflows from Biotech, Pharma, and HMO. This is in line with the market characteristics of this year: not all money is squeezed into AI and technology, and the market is spreading to more sectors. As long as Breadth does not deteriorate, funds do not shift to defense, and 7500 does not break, then the bullish trend of breaking through 7600 is not over yet. The real bear signal is when market width begins to decline, emotions become extreme, funds shift towards defense, and key support is lost. None of these have appeared yet.