Trump's loudmouth tactics are back: You block the strait, I block it too; you charge fees, I charge fees too; now you want compensation, so I want compensation too. Iran made compensation and lifting sanctions conditions for fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump immediately countered by demanding compensation from Iran. The discussion shifted from 'how to resume navigation' to 'who compensates whom,' and oil prices reacted first—WTI and Brent both surged about 5%, with Brent nearing $88. The real trouble lies in the ripple effect: Hormuz stays closed → crude oil prices rise → inflation pressure rebounds → the Fed finds it even harder to pause rate hikes. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester even said multiple rate hikes might be needed to bring inflation back to 2%. This spike in oil prices will have limited impact on the upcoming July CPI, but if prices stay high, it will gradually show up in future inflation data. Nonfarm payrolls just hit the brakes on rate hikes, but now the U.S. and Iran have stepped on the gas again through oil prices.