Last night, the market's weakness was mainly driven by concerns over the short-term difficulty of fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are demanding compensation, and market fears of supply disruptions have resurfaced, leading to a breakout in oil prices (not only surpassing $80 but also breaking above the 50-day moving average). Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields are almost 'point-for-point' following the rise in oil prices, putting further pressure on the market. Last week, oil prices plunged over 7% due to optimism about Iran and Oman nearing an agreement on a new shipping route. However, from the weekend to Monday: 1) Iran reiterated its hardline conditions: the U.S. must end its naval blockade, lift sanctions, compensate for war damages (including billions of dollars in reparations), withdraw troops, etc., before agreeing to reopen the Strait for free navigation. Iran stated that the agreement with Oman is 'nearing the final stage,' but reopening still depends on concessions from the U.S. This has been described as Iran's 'maximum asking price.' 2) Trump, on the other hand, demanded that Iran compensate for '50 years of killing and injuring people' (including civilian protesters and U.S. military casualties). At the same time, Trump made it clear that he prefers not to escalate military actions or resume full-scale airstrikes, opting instead for a 'wait-and-see' strategy. This involves continuing sanctions and blockades to exert economic pressure, hoping Iran will eventually yield. These two points have heightened market concerns about the prolonged standoff, suggesting the Strait won't reopen anytime soon. Economic pressure does seem to be Trump's more realistic option at the moment (military escalation carries high risks and limited effectiveness). While Iran's economy is under strain, the likelihood of Iran 'quickly yielding' in the short term seems low. A prolonged stalemate is more likely until one side gives in under domestic or external pressure, or some form of limited compromise is reached. Ultimately, the standoff revolves around negotiating the terms of Iran's maximum asking price—what can be accepted and what can be conceded. But the biggest issue is that the timeline and path forward have become increasingly unclear. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh: 'Bitget Trade US Stocks: Instant Entry, Seamless Trading'.