SOX's rebound will eventually turn into a decline Big model companies' ARR second derivative turns negative → Cloud providers' AI revenue growth peaks → Free cash flow under pressure → Capex growth rate inflection point downward → Semiconductor industry earnings growth revised down → Valuation compression This is a complete tech cycle transmission chain, and the direction is absolutely correct. The only debate is about the pace of transmission and the timing of its realization. It's not a question of *if* it will happen, but *when* it will happen. The current rebound in SOX is essentially a sentiment recovery after an oversell + short-term earnings not yet disproven, not a fundamental reversal. The logic of the second derivative decline will eventually crush all rebounds. A-shares have already moved ahead of the curve, hahaha