qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Aug 09, 2026 12:18
Why are CRWV and NBIS showing divergent trends this week? As representatives of NeoCloud, the divergence in trends between Crwv and NBIS this week is still worth paying attention to: CRWV rose 26%, while NBIS first rose and then fell this week. This is very different from the trend of the two in the past year: CRWV has been fluctuating in a large range, and NBIS reached a new high at the end of the second quarter. And recently, the overall trend of CSP has been strong, and this week's differentiation is worth discussing: 1. Let's talk about CRWV first Recent significant developments in business: 1) At the end of July, CoreWeave announced a partnership with US defense contractor Leidos to provide secure and sovereign AI cloud services to US intelligence agencies and defense departments; 2) On August 4th, it was announced to enter the Asia Pacific market and add a 360MW Indonesian project; 3) Independent investment bank Piper Sandler has for the first time covered CRWV and NBIS, giving CRWV a much higher target price range than NBIS. Piper Sandler's analysts clearly believe that while both companies will benefit from the demand for AI computing power, CRWV has more advantages in recent cost control, scale operation, and risk return ratio, while NBIS has higher recent execution and forecasting risks. It can only be said that this week's CRWV has been positive news. 2. Take another look at NBIS 1) NBIS's 300MW data center in Vineland, New Jersey has been approved for the first phase and is currently under construction, but the second phase involves a new on-site power generation plan. A six hour planning committee hearing was held on August 5th, but no approval decision was immediately made after the hearing. This increases regulatory and community approval risks, essentially delivery risks. 2) Short selling by big bears Michael Burry stated in his Substack article on August 6th that he shorted two stocks that day. Business Insider subsequently confirmed that one of them is NBIS, with a short price of approximately $212, and the position is "slightly larger" compared to the other short order. Burry publicly disclosed that short selling has concentrated the originally dispersed capital expenditures, leases, depreciation, and execution risks into a very easy to spread short narrative. Market sentiment is also easily influenced. 3. As representatives of NwoCloud, CRWV and NBIS are both my key focuses. Both of them have considerable computing power and have signed major contracts with giants. The former has an RPO of 90 billion yuan, while the latter has an RPO of over 30 billion yuan. But the debt ratio of CRWV is much higher than that of NBIS (91% vs over 60%), so CRWV fluctuates more and NBIS was more stable before. The divergence of this week's trend is partly due to the progress issues of a data center project in NBIS, coupled with the demonstration effect of short selling by large bears. On the other hand, it is possible that the previous trend of CRWV was weak and market expectations were not as good. NBIS previously had a strong market with higher expectations, so the risk is likely to cause concerns later on. Of course, the most crucial thing is the release of the financial reports of the two companies next week. Starting from early July, there will be a reassessment of the value of CSP. The reassessment of the value of the super large CSP has already been clarified, and it depends on whether NeoCloud's financial report this week can also support this point. Look at these aspects in the financial report: Capacity delivery, revenue quality, capital structure, unit economy, and new model validation are all evolving from simple computing power providers to more valuable intermediate layers.
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