For every new technology, first some real pmf is found. Next capital pours into the industry to chase returns. Then mercenaries and grifters come into the industry to chase the new capital. As mercenaries and grifters crowd out missionaries, industry average product quality decreases. Eventually the bubble pops and the cycle resets. Happened in crypto many times. This happens in every new industry because the fluidity of capital is always higher than the growth rate of the technology. Meaning it is always easy for capital to overshoot simply because it is hyper-mobile even when compared to very high growth rates in the underlying technology. Capital pulls future expectations into the present. Exponential growth? Pull it into the present. Exponential on exponential growth? Pull it into the present. In other words, capital is able to use higher order abstraction to price assets and high fluidity/mobility to move to the right place. An exogenous shock which damages even a higher order derivative of growth rate would cause rapid capital reallocation. So when does capital not overshoot? Two cases. 1) The growth rate of the technology is so vertical that the capital deallocation and allocation process can’t keep up. 2) There is total capital saturation and there simply isn’t enough loose capital left to be allocated toward the new technology. And all of this capital analysis is before considering the effect of capital attracting mercenaries and grifters. An exercise left to the reader. If all of this is true, best for the bubble to pop after midterms but before Anthropic IPOs. Can you imagine all these EA types donating shit tons of money to leftist NGOs, causing irreparable damage to the social fabric? It’s basically MacKenzie and Melinda problems all the way down.(Galois Kevin)