Phyrex|Aug 08, 2026 19:10
The situation over the past week has become increasingly clear. Although the U.S. is engaging in negotiations with Iran through Oman, you can already sense that the U.S. is running out of options regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue. While the U.S. has the capability to continue militarily suppressing Iran, every day of high-intensity military operations comes at a significant cost. On the other hand, Iran's costs are much lower—drones, missiles, speedboats, and maritime harassment are inherently suited for prolonged attritional strategies.
So, the longer the conflict drags on, the higher the price the U.S. pays. The U.S. can destroy many of Iran's military facilities but struggles to completely eliminate Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran doesn't even need to fully block the strait; it just needs to demonstrate its ability to attack oil tankers, lay mines, or increase shipping risks to drive up insurance premiums, freight costs, and energy risk premiums.
This is Iran's biggest bargaining chip. The U.S.'s advantage lies in absolute military power, while Iran leverages its geographical position and cost asymmetry. The U.S. might use a multimillion-dollar missile to intercept a cheap drone, while also needing to maintain aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and an entire logistics system over the long term. The result is that while the U.S. may hold the upper hand on the battlefield, it’s increasingly difficult to translate military superiority into decisive victory.
Iran is now more frequently discussing control over the Strait of Hormuz, ship passage, and even tolls because it clearly understands that its most critical leverage is making the U.S. realize that continuing the fight will only get more expensive. Ultimately, there’s a high probability that the U.S. will tacitly accept Iran’s dominance over the Strait. Personally, I think Iran is just trying to find the most reasonable excuse for charging fees and determining the optimal toll rates.
Finally, the weekend is here, time to take a break! Bitcoin has been performing well over the past few days. Although it hasn’t hit new highs like the S&P, the consolidation around $60,000 is very solid. I still believe buying between $60,000 and $65,000 is a good entry point. So, I’ve been using dual-currency strategies to buy Bitcoin:native on dips.
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