The most valuable thing to learn from Musk isn’t how well he predicts the future. It’s how he solves problems. When most people encounter a problem, their first reaction is: What are others doing? What’s the industry norm? What does the market think right now? But Musk’s approach is often the opposite. He starts by going back to fundamental principles and then breaks the problem down again. This is the concept of first principles. Take rockets, for example. Others think it’s natural for rockets to be expensive. But Musk broke down the costs of materials, manufacturing processes, and recovery systems, and ultimately discovered that the high cost wasn’t due to materials—it was because the old systems were inefficient. The same applies to investing. Many people buy stocks based solely on price movements. But the real questions to ask are: What problem is this company solving? Does it meet a long-term demand? Does it have a cost structure advantage? Can it continue to iterate and improve? Is it aligned with a big enough trend of the times? If you haven’t thought through these questions, even a big price increase is just emotional hype. If you have thought through them, short-term fluctuations are just part of the process. Out of Musk’s 15 mental models, I think these are the most applicable to ordinary people: 1. **Goal-driven thinking** Figure out what you want first, then decide how to achieve it. The same goes for investing: set your time horizon first, then choose your assets. Don’t let the market drag you around every day. 2. **Long-termism** Make today’s decisions with a ten-year perspective. Some assets may seem expensive in the short term but could just be in their early stages in the long term. Some opportunities may look exciting in the short term but turn out to be bubbles in the long run. 3. **Rapid iteration** Don’t expect to get everything right in one go. When the market changes or new information emerges, you need to review, adjust, and act again. 4. **Tolerance for failure** Losses, misjudgments, and missed opportunities aren’t the scariest things. The scariest thing is making a mistake and then refusing to review it, only blaming the market instead. 5. **Systems thinking** No result is caused by a single factor. Company growth, industry cycles, interest rates, liquidity, valuations, and market sentiment are all variables within a system. So truly great people aren’t those who are always right. They’re the ones who can continuously turn mistakes into feedback, feedback into systems, and systems into long-term advantages. I really like this quote: ‘The important thing isn’t predicting the future, but creating the future.’ The same applies to investing. Ordinary people may not be able to create a SpaceX. But at the very least, they can create their own investment system, learning system, and cash flow system. Stop obsessing over guessing the next market trend. Focus on becoming someone who can iterate and improve over the long term. The market rewards trends. But it rewards those who can evolve over the long term even more.