加密狗|Aug 08, 2026 08:49
What should we do if we haven’t hopped on the train during an all-time high?
Since 1950-01-03, the S&P 500 has hit an all-time high 1,533 times.
Since 1985-10-01, the Nasdaq-100 has hit an all-time high 818 times.
On average, these two indices hit about 20 all-time highs every year.
For high-quality assets: an all-time high isn’t a danger signal—it’s just the norm of the market.
⏰ If you buy at any all-time high:
▫️ Hold for 1 year: average returns of 9.8%–20.5%, with over 74% of the time being profitable.
▫️ Hold for 3 years: average returns of 30.5%–59.2%, with over 85% of the time being profitable.
▫️ Hold for 5 years: average returns of 56.8%–126.8%, with over 80% of the time being profitable.
▫️ Hold for 10 years: average returns of 172.4%–249.9%, with over 77% of the time being profitable.
Historically, buying at any all-time high and holding for 20 years has a 100% success rate, with average cumulative returns of 637% and 626%, respectively.
So, hitting an all-time high isn’t scary. What’s truly worth fearing isn’t buying at the high—it’s letting fear of the high keep you off the train for the long term.
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