Six dimensional trading system in the US stock market | Today's SPCX ——SpaceX (SPCX) rebounds violently by 23% after lifting ban, short covering or trend reversal? The current price of SPCX is $132, with a violent rebound of 23% in two days. Its market value has increased by $327 billion, just one step away from the IPO price of $135. Two days ago, I predicted three paths for the price trend of SPCX, and my biggest concern was that path three (bouncing first and then falling) was being realized, but the amplitude and speed of the bounce were even stronger than expected. 1. The underlying logic of a rebound is not a reversal, but a forced position. The lifting of restrictions did not trigger a sell-off, but instead became a fuel for short selling. On August 6th, the first batch of approximately 911 million shares were unlocked, and the number of circulating shares surged from 639 million to 1.55 billion. The market had previously unanimously expected that the lifting of restrictions would lead to concentrated selling, but the actual trend was exactly the opposite, with a 23% surge in the two days after the lifting of restrictions. Why? The bears were killed by counterattacks. Before the lifting of the ban, the short selling ratio once reached over 36% of tradable stocks. Short positions are extremely crowded, and the certainty expectation is that they will fall after the lifting of restrictions. When the stock price does not fall but rises, bears are forced to replenish, forming a positive feedback of "rising → replenishing → further rising". The options market is also fueling the trend. On Friday, the trading volume of options reached 2.24 million contracts, with 1.3 million call options, setting a new historical high. Funds are pouring back in. 2. The nature of this uptrend is a bearish trend, not a trend reversal driven by fundamentals. Short covering is the main driving force behind this round of gains. Miller Tabak's Chief Strategist Matt Maley explicitly stated that "there will definitely be some bearish positions in the market that need to be closed before and after the lifting of the ban. The short selling ratio has decreased from 36% to 16%, with over 250 million shares still being short sold. If the stock price continues to rise, the bearish frenzy may not have ended yet. The financial report itself is supported: revenue of 7.8 billion (+92%), Starlink 4.29 billion, AI revenue of 2.56 billion (+247%), and Citigroup reiterated its "buy" target price of $200. But the two-day increase of 23% is clearly beyond the scope of fundamental explanations. 3. Independent analysis and judgment of STS in the six dimensional system of stocks Dimension 1: Market Expectations and Consensus (+1, biased towards excess) Citigroup reiterates its target purchase price of $200, while UBS is optimistic about the long-term value of the space economy and Starlink. The short selling ratio has plummeted from 36% to 16%, and bears are passively retreating, with 250 million short positions still likely to be forced. Conclusion: Excessive. Dimension 2: Quantity price and technical aspect (+1, biased towards excess) In two days, the volume surged by 23%, and the trading volume of options reached a historical high, with 1.3 million call options. Abundant quantity, driven by buying. There is a short-term bias towards technology. Conclusion: Excessive. Dimension 3: Actual performance and operational quality (+1, biased towards excess) Revenue of 7.8 billion (+92%), Star Chain 4.29 billion (+66%), AI revenue of 2.56 billion (+247%), and Star Shield government contract of 6 billion US dollars. The fundamentals are strong. Conclusion: Excessive. Dimension ④: Management signals and forward guidance (-1, bearish) Capital expenditures remain high, and net losses are difficult to see a turning point in the short term. Subsequently, 319 million shares will be unlocked on August 20th, and approximately 1.4 billion shares will be released in batches from September to October. Conclusion: It is biased towards emptiness. Dimension ⑤: News Emotions and Narrative Drivers (+1, biased towards more) Short selling frenzy is underway, and buying sentiment is high. But the characteristic of a bearish market is "fast and short", and extreme emotional values often indicate that a short-term turning point is approaching. Conclusion: Excessive. Dimension ⑥: Macroeconomics and Liquidity (0, neutral) The macro environment is neutral. Conclusion: Neutral. STS comprehensive judgment: Make four dimensions (expectations, quantity and price, performance, emotions), Short 1 (management), neutral 1 (macro). Comprehensive signal: bullish, but the bearish trend has entered the second half, After the rebound is in place, the price is likely to continue to decline and hit the bottom. We cannot assume a trend reversal just because of a short-term strong rebound! 4、 Fibonacci spatial positioning From the historical high of 225.64 to the low of 104.83, the complete decline period: -0.236 retracement position: approximately 133.35 -0.382 retracement position: approximately 151.00 -0.5 retracement position: approximately 165.24 -0.618 retracement position: approximately 179.47 The price of $133.35 coincides with the IPO issue price of $135, which is currently the most direct resistance zone. 151 is the 0.382 gravitational potential in the theory of natural transactions. If it breaks through 135, the next strong gravitational potential will be at 151. 165 is the 0.5 gravitational potential, and 179 is the 0.618 strong gravitational potential. $132-135 is the short-term long short battle zone. Stand firmly at 135 and open the space leading to 151; If it rises and falls, then it will retrace to 120-125 support. 5. Suggested trading strategy (1) Short selling strategy: not eager to go against the trend. The 135-140 range is the key observation level. If there is a large volume stagnation or a long upper shadow line, then consider taking a light short position, stop loss 145, and target 125-120; (2) Long strategy: For those who already have positions, take profits in batches. Consider waiting for the pullback to stabilize at 125-128 for empty positions; (3) Stop loss discipline: Regardless of long or short positions, stop loss must be strictly enforced, Which answer will you choose today SPCX rebounded by 23% in two days, currently priced at 132. What do you think will happen next A: Continue to push the gap, break through 135 and challenge 151 B: Blocked near 135, callback to 120-125 C: Severe sawing in the range of 125-135 Hey guys, give us your answer and let's chat together.