Hupzy (Spot On Chain)|Aug 07, 2026 13:25
US nonfarm payrolls fell by 𝟮𝟯,𝟬𝟬𝟬 in July against expectations of +85,000 — a 108K swing below consensus and the third-largest monthly job loss since the 2020 pandemic. June was revised down by 37K.
𝗛𝘂𝗽𝘇𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲: The 30-point collapse in September rate-hike odds — from 70% to 40% — reprices the entire Fed path in a single data release. Lower hike odds are structurally bullish for risk assets, but the economic weakness driving them is risk-off. Gold above $𝟰,𝟰𝟬𝟬 confirms the flight-to-safety bid.
For BTC, this sets up a binary trade: a dovish pivot supports risk appetite, but a deteriorating labor market caps the upside. Watch whether next month's payrolls confirm the downtrend — June was already cut by 37K.
source: KobeissiLetter
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