The bear market cycle has come this far, and the old holders are surprisingly quiet. The VDD Multiple doesn’t look at regular trading volume but rather measures how long bitcoin:native has been dormant before moving on-chain. For example, selling 1 BTC after holding it for 5 days versus selling it after holding it for 5 years carries completely different implications. The longer the holding period, the higher the coin age destroyed, and the greater its reference value to the market. Looking back at 2013-2014, 2017, 2021, and around 2024, VDD has historically risen above 2.9. These peaks don’t necessarily align with BTC’s highest price, but the underlying behavior is similar: long-term holders start transferring their coins in bulk, cashing out profits using market liquidity. So, high VDD is better suited for observing cycle distribution rather than mechanically timing the top. Right now, the situation is the opposite. VDD has dropped back to around 0.75, approaching the low-value zone again. After BTC’s significant correction, long-term holders haven’t been consistently or heavily transferring their coins. Moreover, when BTC hit higher prices earlier, VDD didn’t show the extreme peaks seen in 2017 and 2021. Prices climbed higher, but the selling intensity of old holders didn’t scale up accordingly. This feels more like high-cost coins being cleared out, while long-term holders are choosing to wait and see, rather than the concentrated distribution typical of cycle tops. However, low VDD doesn’t prove that a bottom has formed. It only indicates that old holders are unwilling to sell, not that new buying pressure has returned. If the market lacks liquidity, prices can still continue to drop. Next, I’ll be watching for two scenarios: 1. BTC stops making new lows, and VDD stays below 0.75. This would suggest selling pressure is shrinking, old holders are still locked in, and the bottom structure is becoming more solid. 2. BTC rebounds, but VDD quickly breaks above 1.5 or even returns to 2.9+. This would indicate dormant coins are cashing out during the rebound, and selling pressure above could increase again. So right now, my focus isn’t on whether old holders have sold everything. It’s on how long the market will need to adjust before new buying pressure returns, given that these holders are no longer willing to sell. Will you start positioning while old holders remain silent, or wait for price confirmation of a reversal before entering?