Recently, there has been a large accumulation of chips at 63k, which has also been observed by GlassNode .. But they are also unable to provide directional conclusions .. Today's weekly report can be summarized as follows: 1. Global rise, BTC absent 594 BTC were stolen without triggering a sell-off. The Coldcard hardware wallet was hacked, and 119000 old coins were awakened, which is 200 times the amount stolen. The old money on the chain is collectively migrating wallets. But only one tenth of it flows to the exchange. Several factors indicate that this wave of 120000 old coins is moving into a new cold wallet, not smashing the market. At the same time, the spot price showed no response, indicating that there was neither active buying nor selling activity. 4. Arrived at the bottom area, but there was no "dish washing" At the bottom of several rounds in history, there needs to be a wave of panic selling: The proportion of profitable supply has been pushed to an extreme while the volatility has skyrocketed. This round of events like this has not happened yet. The volatility is still very low. The market is boring. The 30 day average of the seller depletion constant (proportion of profitable supply x realized volatility) is at the low point of this round and has entered the historical bottom range, but it is still about one-third higher than the floor finally touched by previous bear markets. This time, Xiong Di is standing at the door and hasn't entered yet. 5. The legs of the mechanism are in reverse Structured buying (ETF+Treasury) has been selling in the past quarter. In June, the ETF returned 65800 BTC, the worst month in history. Caiku also stopped buying. Currently, BTC lacks a buyer's engine. The market is no longer that bad, but it has not yet entered an upward trend The Market Compass indicator of Glassnode has rebounded from three consecutive weeks of Risk Off to Defensive The market has stopped continuously deteriorating, selling pressure has eased, and some bottom conditions have begun to appear, but no upward momentum has been formed yet At present, about half of the bottom confirmation conditions have been completed. The remaining half requires some 'big event' to push forward. 7. Options, no one is buying them. The current option bet will not happen 8. In history, this type of low volatility compression usually breaks upwards This is the most extensive part of the entire text. But at the same time, it is emphasized that there are important differences between this time and the past: In the past, when there was a low volatility followed by an upward breakthrough, there was usually sustained buying support behind it, such as ETF inflows, stablecoin expansion, or institutional buying. Although currently experiencing extreme volatility compression, ETF funds are still flowing out, and the bottom depletion indicator has not completely hit the bottom. Therefore, historical experience tends to be upward, but currently there is a lack of demand engine, and the direction of breakthrough cannot be fully confirmed. ---------- So overall direction, More neutral, but the bottom has not been confirmed yet. The market is no longer willing to continue selling, but no one is willing to actively chase after it. Everyone is waiting for a breakthrough, while options assume that there hasn't been a breakthrough recently. This state usually does not last too long. Because option holders are lowering volatility, once volatility starts to increase (such as breaking through to one side), the market will start to aggressively chase volatility in the same direction. Option market makers are once again forced to hedge in the right direction, and the market may evolve from a normal breakout to a squeeze. In the end, his viewpoint remained a familiar phrase to us, The big one is coming, I don't know where to go