《Market Breaking News》 —— U.S. ADP data surprises, BTC surges to $64,500. Can it hold this time? Just now, the U.S. July ADP employment data was released: only 44,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 65,000–70,000, marking the lowest in six months. As soon as the data dropped, the market reacted quickly—Dollar Index turned bearish, and BTC briefly surged to $64,500, just a step away from the previous high of $64,549. But there’s a contradiction in this data: weak employment, yet wages are rising. Salaries for those staying in their jobs increased by 4.4%, while job-hoppers saw their wages accelerate year-over-year to 7.0%. This means companies are hiring less, but the cost of competing for talent hasn’t dropped. The inflationary “wage-price spiral” hasn’t been broken yet. Impact on BTC: Short-term bullish—weak employment = cooling rate hike expectations (September rate hike probability has dropped from 80% to 56%), supporting the risk asset recovery narrative. However, whether tonight’s rally can sustain depends on Friday’s non-farm payroll data. If non-farm payrolls also weaken, rate cut expectations will solidify, which would be a continued positive for BTC. If non-farm payrolls unexpectedly remain strong, the optimism brought by today’s ADP data could be quickly corrected. Don’t bet on ADP as if it’s non-farm payrolls. Let’s wait for Friday’s results. Stay tuned for the non-farm payroll data release!