彼得兔|Aug 05, 2026 13:32
BTC Market Analysis on August 5, 2026
Will BTC fall to a new low when the next key Gann low point arrives? How should short-term and intraday operations be conducted?
Let's follow up on the short-term market first: On July 19th, it was proposed that the stage high point would fall around 66900, and then it rose to 66956 on July 21st before falling back as scheduled. On July 28th, many friends were wondering if the rebound of 57800 had ended and if Bitcoin's decline had started again. In my tweet that day, I provided three possible paths and made it clear that I personally believe 66956 is a pullback rather than a decline, giving everyone a peace of mind. And it was clearly stated that whether there will be a deep or shallow correction in the future mainly depends on whether the daily chart will fall below 62800. Now everyone, take a look at the red circle in Figure 2. Did it not break the test and then rebound?
The observation point above us is at 65200, which is a major short-term pressure level. In the future, we will pay attention to the breakthrough situation at this position to determine whether the pullback has ended. Cannot break through here, 62275 is a rebound, there will be a short-term short selling opportunity at that time. If it can break through, it may be an upward trend at the same level as 57800-66956. The main pressure level above is the front line of 66956-67300, and above it is 72700-73500. The 70000 yuan frontline is more of a psychological barrier, with symbolic significance outweighing practical significance.
What if BTC fails to break upwards in the future and chooses to continue downwards? There are two situations. If you are still sorting horizontally within the angle formed by the blue and green Gann angle lines, try to go long in the short term without falling below the lower boundary (61400). If it breaks through, the important support is 59850. If it really falls below, I will follow up again. This adjustment won't last long, if it's fast, it can come out this week or next week.
After speaking about the short-term trend, let's talk about the market situation. Old friends know that on September 13th last year, I expressed my views on interest rate cuts (Figure 3). It was clearly stated that the market is coming to an end, so don't get caught up. On September 18th, it was explicitly stated that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are selling more and more as they rise, and are escaping the top! On October 18th, when the market thought it was a correction, I said that the bear market had already begun, and the next main trend was short selling, at least until the third quarter. The subsequent low point of Gann happened to fall on July 1st, the first day of the third quarter. And I mentioned this time as early as November 2025, which is the magic of Gann time.
Regarding the two time points of Bitcoin's bear bottom, one is July 1st, which has already appeared as a phase low point. There is another one in mid November. I have said many times in the past two months that either 57800 is the lowest point. In mid November, there will be a pullback low point instead of the lowest point. We can understand it as the main force preparing to rise after completing the fundraising, which is what we call the transition point between a bear market and a bull market.
When it fell below 60000, I said that the price had entered the main fundraising range, and medium and long-term positions could be built in batches. The main force is highly likely to complete the fundraising in the third and fourth quarters, so I will also buy in batches in the second half of the year to complete the position building. The main force is attracting funds, while individual investors are always waiting and struggling with the lowest point. Whether to keep up with the pace of the main force or stand in the queue of individual investors, the choice is up to each individual.
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