TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Aug 05, 2026 09:45
Here’s another perspective: from a fundamental standpoint, SPCX is unlikely to rally in the short term. Previously, the stock price increase was mainly driven by short squeezes and capital arrangements. Judging by the stock performance, the likelihood of another short squeeze during tonight’s opening window is very low. Otherwise, the stock price should have stayed above 130. As for Tesla—SpaceX merger capital arrangements, this seems to be the only path forward. However, based on recent denials about withdrawing from China and other related information, the merger is not a current priority. If the merger were confirmed, Tesla’s stock would rise while SpaceX’s stock would fall, which would be highly unfavorable for SpaceX, especially since it’s not ready yet. Hence, denying the merger is a necessary move. If SPCX is stuck at 110 and the merger is confirmed, it would essentially mean using a 60% discount to acquire Tesla—locking the share swap ratio at the most humiliating position for SPCX shareholders and the most dilutive position for itself. It’s not that they don’t want to merge; it’s that they can’t merge at this exchange rate. Therefore, SPCX must first be pushed higher before the merger can be initiated. At the earliest, this would happen after the Q3 earnings report, when the stock price rebounds to the 150–170 range. So, are the bulls feeling very pessimistic right now? Not really. Although the stock performance over the past two days hasn’t been enough to unlock chips and discourage selling, die-hard holders won’t sell if the price is low enough. Interestingly, the 150–170 range is the sweet spot where selling pressure is strongest—not too high, not too low. Prices that are either too high or too low tend to suppress selling pressure. Based on Musk’s recent behavior, he likely has some tricks up his sleeve, such as signed cloud service or defense contracts generating verifiable revenue, Musk or the company increasing their holdings with real cash, or stock buybacks. So in terms of strategy, holding long-term is fine, and selling during short-term rallies to trade the waves is also okay. Ultimately, it depends on individual positions and leverage levels. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT—10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, enjoy dividend payouts.
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