Art of Speculation|Aug 05, 2026 02:27
Today, market breadth has clearly improved, and we’re starting to see a broad-based rally. Both the S&P and Dow hit new highs, while the Russell 2000 is just a bit shy of its previous high. The Nasdaq 100 is still some distance from its prior peak, leaving room for a catch-up rally. Will check the options data later.
In this high-interest-rate environment, U.S. stock market funds are showing a preference for gradually shifting from high-volatility, high-valuation growth stocks to high-quality companies with more stable earnings, higher gross margins, and stronger free cash flow. This is an internal rotation within the bull market, transitioning from trading on expectations and valuations to focusing more on realized earnings and cash flow.
A couple of days ago, I mentioned that Leopold being precisely hunted by Ken Griffin might signal a bottom and rebound—similar to how ETH whales forced Yi Lihua to capitulate before a rebound. Now that Ken Griffin has scooped up a wave of cheap chips and flipped from short to long, the next step is likely to hunt down the shorts—like Burry . Let’s see when Burry throws in the towel. Big short capitulation is often a signal of a short-term top. Over the past couple of days, he’s even added to his Nvidia and QQQ shorts. There’s still room to run—Nvidia could hit its previous high of 236 before earnings, and QQQ could break new highs.
The S&P has been consolidating for two weeks, building up momentum before breaking out with volume. The current strategy is to buy the dip and trade with the trend. Any 1-hour pullback, like the Nasdaq 100 pulling back to the 1-hour EMA 20 or the S&P pulling back to the 1-hour EMA 20 at 7624, presents a buying opportunity.
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