Lao Bai|Aug 04, 2026 11:35
Been chatting with a few Founders working on prediction markets or related tools these past few days, and here’s the vibe:
1. Prediction markets were undervalued before the U.S. election
2. After the U.S. election, Polymarket held its ground, and the market realized this could work
3. Before the World Cup, prediction markets were overhyped
4. After the World Cup, the market returned to rationality—prediction markets are viable, but not as hot as Perp or the Meme craze back in the day
Feels like a two-year journey through the Gartner Hype Cycle.
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