Deutsche Bank supports SpaceX before its first financial report: space and Starlink businesses can support current market value, AI business' zero pricing 'is an excessive punishment BlockBeats News: On August 4th, SpaceX will announce its first financial report after going public today. According to BIT (bit. com) market data, its stock price has almost halved from a 52 week high of $201.80 to $115. Deutsche Bank maintained its SPCX "buy" rating and a target price of $255 on the eve of its financial report. Through a classification and aggregation valuation stress test, it pointed out that the space business (based on Blue Origin's external valuation of $130 billion last month, SpaceX launch frequency and Starship progress should be given a premium of 3 to 5 times, corresponding to $39 billion to $65 billion) and Starlink business (corresponding to the expected EV/EBITDA valuation range of $74.8 billion to $95.6 billion in 2027) have a median value of about $1.35 trillion, which is roughly equivalent to the current market value of about $1.4 trillion - this means that the market is pricing its AI business close to zero. Deutsche Bank explicitly stated that this is too punitive and clearly does not match the potential scale of its AI business. JPMorgan previously gave SPCX an "increase" rating and a target price of $225. It is expected that SpaceX's revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 91% from 2025 to 2030, expanding from $19 billion to $470 billion. Deutsche Bank expects SpaceX's Q2 revenue to be $6.671 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.1 billion. The AI business has become the largest increment, with expected revenue doubling month on month to $1.876 billion, mainly benefiting from the new cloud service agreement signed with Anthropic; Starlink's broadband user base is expected to reach 12.5 million by the end of the quarter, with revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year to nearly 4 billion US dollars. The biggest tactical pressure at present comes from the pressure of unlocking and selling. The first batch of about 912 million shares will be unlocked from August 6th, and about 300 million shares will be unlocked every 15 to 20 days thereafter. Another about 1.3 billion shares will be released in the third quarter financial report. Deutsche Bank believes that the stock price is expected to stabilize after the unlocking period, and if large-scale government or sovereign AI cooperation agreements are implemented at that time, it will form a positive catalyst. The four major focuses of SpaceX's financial report include the pace of Starship's subsequent launches and whether the recovery of the second tower can be achieved, the selection of the US ground mobile network roadmap, AI business variables (Grok iteration, cursor integration, Google's report only using SpaceX computing power as a transitional bridge, progress of US government cooperation negotiations), and Musk's cautious statement on the merger during Tesla's financial conference call.