The traditional market is closed on weekends, but Hyperliquid has bet on a significant opening direction of 94.9% ahead of schedule? We used to think that after the closing of the US stock market on Friday, the price would stop After the closure of commodity futures, the market can only wait until the next trading session to digest war, weather, financial reports, and policy changes again But on Hyperliquid, stocks, indices, commodities, and forex perpetual contracts can still continue to be traded This brings up a problem: Are these weekend prices just a group of crypto players betting on each other without spot anchoring, or are they real prices formed in advance before the traditional market opens? A recent study on the Hyperliquid weekend market provides a rather exaggerated answer The study counted 614 "market closure reopening" events across 17 consecutive closing cycles and 68 markets, and only retained samples with weekend trading volumes exceeding $1 million The results show that among all 614 events, there is a 70.7% probability that the price of Hyperliquid before the end of the weekend is closer to the next true opening price than the closing price on Friday If the price fluctuation on the chain exceeds 1% over the weekend, its accuracy in determining the opening direction reaches 94.9% The median error between Friday's closing price and the next opening price is about 1.133%, while after continuous trading over the weekend, the median error of Hyperliquid price has decreased to about 0.534%, a reduction of about 53% in error That is to say, after the traditional market is closed, price discovery has not completely stopped, it has only shifted from the spot and futures markets of the exchange to the still open on chain order book Let's talk about the mechanism of TradeXYZ first When the US stock market, Japanese and Korean stocks, indices or commodity markets are trading normally, TradeXYZ will enter the "external pricing stage", where the oracle reads the real quotes from the external market. The perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid operate around these quotes through funding rates, market makers and arbitrage trading But after the traditional market closes, the external real price no longer exists, and the contract will enter the "internal pricing stage" The final external price on Friday serves as the starting point, and subsequent prices are mainly determined by the actual buying and selling in the Hyperliquid order book Assuming crude oil closes at $100 on Friday, there will be a sudden geopolitical conflict over the weekend. The traditional futures market is still closed, but traders on Hyperliquid can immediately buy or short perpetual contracts for crude oil Some people believe that the opening price will rise to $105 and are willing to continue buying at $103 or $104; Some people believe that if the impact is exaggerated, they will sell at high levels These people are not depositing questionnaires, but real deposits The constantly emerging new information over the weekend was thus pre traded into a price by both long and short parties. When the traditional market reopened, TradeXYZ's oracle machine re read external quotes, and perpetual contracts approached the real market again Research shows that within 5 minutes of reopening, 84% of contracts return to within 0.1% of the external price; Within 15 minutes, this proportion increased to 89% So the weekend price of Hyperliquid will not determine how the traditional market opens. On the contrary, after the traditional market resumes trading, the actual external quotation still has the final decision-making power But before the opening, the on chain order book has already provided a tradable forecast, and this forecast is not just a judgment of ups and downs Further research has found that for every 1% implied volatility traded on Hyperliquid over the weekend, the average redemption after reopening is about 0.83% Weekend prices alone can explain about 69% of the opening volatility difference As the reopening approaches, the prediction error continues to shrink: the median error at Friday's close was about 1.133%; When there was still one day left before the opening, it dropped to about 0.899%; When it was 6 hours before the opening, it dropped to about 0.701%; In the last 5 minutes before the opening, there is only about 0.534% left This indicates that the price was not suddenly guessed at the last minute. With the continuous emergence of weekend information and the continuous influx of real funds, the on chain price is gradually approaching the final opening position Changxin Technology is a very typical case Before the first real quote appeared on the A-share market, the CXMT perpetual contract on Hyperliquid had been trading for nearly two weeks, pushing the price to a position that was basically consistent with the actual opening price At that time, we could have said that this might just be a chance hit But after expanding the sample to 614 market reopening events, it is difficult to explain all similar phenomena as coincidences The on chain market has indeed absorbed some new information during the time when traditional markets cannot trade, which is also one of the reasons why TradeXYZ has grown so rapidly According to the report statistics, as of early August, TradeXYZ has deployed 103 markets, of which 88 remain active in trading The average daily trading volume over the past 30 days was approximately $3.7 billion, accounting for 52% of the total perpetual contract trading volume of Hyperliquid. The cumulative trading volume in the past 30 days is about 110.6 billion US dollars, an increase of about 16 times compared to 6.9 billion US dollars in December last year. The cumulative trading volume has exceeded 440 billion US dollars, with approximately 3.5 billion US dollars in open contracts. Users come here to trade not only 'on chain versions of stocks', but also time that traditional markets cannot provide The financial reports after the close of the US stock market, geopolitical conflicts over the weekend, disruptions in crude oil supply, and risks before traditional futures reopen can all be traded immediately For fund managers holding US stocks, when there is negative news on Saturday, they no longer have to wait until the opening on Monday; For option market makers, after the closure of the spot and option markets, they can still adjust risk through on chain perpetual contracts; For ordinary users, previously only institutions could privately negotiate weekend hedging through banks and counterparties, but now it can be completed directly in the public order book But don't rush to understand this research as' on chain prices have completely replaced traditional markets' The shortcomings of the weekend market are also very obvious Research shows that the bid ask spread over the weekend did not significantly deteriorate, and the median spread could even be maintained at around 0.0143%. However, the narrow spread does not necessarily mean that the order book is deep enough The depth of orders within the range of 0.05%, 0.1%, and 0.25% of the current price on weekends is only about 50%, 41%, and 31% of the normal trading period, respectively The median size of a weekend order also decreased from $471 during normal hours to $106 Small transactions can still be executed at a relatively reasonable cost, but once large orders enter, the slippage will significantly increase This also explains why Hyperliquid can detect prices in advance, but may also have very exaggerated pins The flash crash of Hynix a few days ago was the other side At that time, the spot price of Hynix was indeed declining, and the direction reflected by the on chain oracle was not fabricated out of thin air But when buying orders retreat, leveraged long positions continue to sell out, and backup clearing funds are insufficient, the same external impact is amplified on TradeXYZ, ultimately forming a deeper penetration than other platforms So Changxin Technology and Hynix are not contradictory Changxin told us that the on chain market has the ability to form a price consensus close to the real opening price in advance before the traditional market opens Hynix reminds us that when the order book becomes thinner, the oracle displays abnormal quotes, or there is insufficient clearing funds, the on chain price may also temporarily deviate from the true consensus The ability to discover prices and the ability to withstand market pressure are two different things The 94.9% mentioned in the report cannot be understood as a 94.9% win rate for buying and selling on Hyperliquid weekends It refers to the sample where the price on the chain has fluctuated by more than 1% over the weekend, and this fluctuation direction is highly consistent with the actual opening direction later on Traders still have to face bid ask spreads, funding rates, slippage, liquidation risks, and price discovery range limitations Moreover, the TradeXYZ perpetual contract cannot be exchanged for real stocks, and there is no complete, risk-free arbitrage loop between on chain prices and traditional markets A correct prediction does not mean that everyone can make money from it But the 614 opening events at least prove one thing: when traditional exchanges are closed, the market's judgment of asset value does not pause Information is still being generated, risks are still changing, and funds still need to find a place to express their views Previously, this part of the transaction could only occur in the private market between large institutions and banks Now, it is beginning to appear in a globally open, anyone observable on chain order book The opening price of traditional markets still has the final interpretation power, but it may no longer be the place where the market first discovers prices When the first quotation on Monday starts to become an acceptance of the prices on the weekend chain Who is the real pre market? HYPE Hyperliquid TradeXYZ