Market Emergencies —— One sentence conclusion: I believe that the current rebound has not yet confirmed a trend reversal. Has the trend really reversed as the US stock market and BTC rise simultaneously? Trump was shouting 'the gun is loaded' over the weekend, but within 48 hours, he suddenly announced the cancellation of the strike and said he would restart negotiations. After the announcement, the market quickly entered a "risk appetite" mode: Brent crude oil fell by about 7% at one point, falling back to around $81; US stock futures collectively rose, while the semiconductor sector shifted from a decline to an increase; BTC quickly rebounded in volume, approaching below $64000 again. But my judgment has not changed: At present, it is not enough to confirm that the trend has reversed, which is more like an emotion driven rebound. There are four main reasons: Firstly, geopolitical risks have not been truly resolved. The Iranian side has denied the news of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's policy has been repeated for the first time. What truly affects the market is not a statement, but whether the agreement is truly implemented. Secondly, BTC has never been the biggest beneficiary of geopolitical conflicts. During the past few rounds of escalation in the Middle East, oil prices have often reacted the most directly, while BTC has been more influenced by US dollar liquidity, interest rate expectations, and ETF fund flows. Thirdly, what the market really trades is actually the expectation of interest rate cuts. The current largest logical chain is: Oil prices fall → inflation expectations decrease → US bond yields fall → expectations of Fed interest rate cuts rise → valuation of risk assets recovers. If this logic can continue, it will be a mid-term positive for both BTC and technology stocks. But if it is only a short-term fluctuation caused by the cooling of geopolitical sentiment, the sustainability of this rebound is still questionable. Fourthly, the real test has not yet begun. The area around $63800-64000 above BTC remains an important pressure zone and a key resistance level that has been repeatedly verified before. Under the stimulation of favorable factors, the price can rebound to the range of 64500-65200, which is around the 0.786 level of Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, tonight's Palantir financial report, the flow of funds after the official opening of the US stock market, and this week's non farm payroll data may all have a renewed impact on market expectations. Therefore, I tend to define the current market situation as: A message driven risk appetite repair, rather than a confirmed reversal of the trend. What truly determines the direction of BTC's next stage is still: Whether ETF funds continue to flow in again; Is the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts further strengthened; Can the technology sector of the US stock market continue to rise; Can BTC effectively stabilize at key pressure levels. Which side are you standing on today Which type of rise do you think this round belongs to? A: The trend reversal has begun, and BTC will continue to rise. B: The emotional rebound stimulated by the news will soon fall back. C: Continue to fluctuate, waiting for the direction given by non farm data. Welcome to share your reasons. I also want to see if people now believe more in "easing geopolitical risks" or "repricing expectations of interest rate cuts". My BTC short position below has already taken profit ahead of schedule, and taking profit needs to be flexible.