Annie 所长|Aug 03, 2026 07:16
This week's financial report nuclear bomb is coming! SpaceX's first quarterly report overlaps with non farm payroll, causing a major reversal in the US stock market:
Monday, August 3rd
1. Palantir PLTR
Post market release. The consensus is around EPS of 0.34-0.35 and revenue of approximately 1.81B (YoY+80-81%), which is close to/slightly above our own guidance. The core focus is on the dual wheel drive of the US government and business (especially the landing and conversion of AIP, the recovery of business growth), the Rule of 40/gross profit/FCF, and the room for upward revision of the annual guidance. If the business exceeds expectations and maintains high growth rates+guidance is raised, there is ample room for profit expectations to increase, and the stock price is expected to rebound strongly (with implied volatility of about ± 12-15%); If the business falls short of expectations or valuation concerns dominate, there may be a pullback.
Tuesday, August 4th
2. AMD Semiconductor
Post market release. The consensus is about EPS $1.61-1.62, with revenue of about $11.3B (YoY+47%), close to the median guidance (about $11.2B ± $0.3B). The core focuses on the contribution of data centers (Instinct AI Accelerator+EPYC CPU), gross profit margin (guidance of approximately 56%), client/embedded performance, and second half/full year guidance. If the AI accelerator exceeds expectations and gross profit remains stable with an upward trend, there is ample room for profit expectations to increase, and the stock price is expected to continue to be strong (with implied volatility of about ± 8-10%); If the growth rate of data centers slows down or competition concerns increase, there may be a pullback.
3. SpaceX SPCX
After hours release (first quarterly financial report). Consensus revenue is approximately $6.8-6.9B, with EPS ranging from - $0.20 to - $0.35 (still at a loss). Focus on Starlink user/revenue growth rate and profit margin, space launch performance, AI/computing power leasing progress, Starship progress and capital expenditure/cash consumption. If Starlink continues to experience high growth and controllable losses (investment rather than deterioration), the stock price is expected to stabilize and rebound (with significant implied volatility, about ± 10-15%+, due to new listing and approaching lock up period); If the losses expand or grow less than expected, it may be under pressure.
Wednesday, August 5th
4. SanDisk SNDK
After hours release (Q4 fiscal year). Consensus is around EPS $33-35, revenue is around $8.3-8.5B (YoY+340%+), close to/slightly exceeding our own guidance (revenue $7.75-8.25B, EPS $30-33). The core focus is on NAND prices and supply and demand, enterprise level SSD/AI storage demand, gross profit margin, as well as next year's guidance and investor outlook. If the price and demand exceed expectations and the guidance is strong, there is ample room for upward adjustment of profit expectations, and the stock price is expected to soar (with implied volatility of about ± 20-25%); If inventory/prices fall short of expectations, there may be a significant correction.
5. Western Digital WDC
After hours release (Q4 fiscal year). The consensus is about EPS of $3.3-3.35 and revenue of about $3.7B (YoY+40%+), which is close to our own guidance. Core considerations include HDD/flash prices and AI data center demand, gross profit margin (guidance of approximately 51-52%), inventory and supply-demand balance, and outlook for the second half of the year. If the price and shipment exceed expectations and the gross profit is stable, there is ample room for upward adjustment of profit expectations, and the stock price is expected to continue to be strong (with implied volatility of about ± 12-16%); If demand or price falls short of expectations, there may be a pullback.
Friday, August 7th
6. Non farm employment (NFP, July data)
The consensus is about an increase of 85K in new employment (previous value+57K), an unemployment rate of about 4.3% (previous value 4.2%), and an average hourly wage ratio of about+0.3%. The core focus is on employment resilience vs. cooling signals, wage growth rate, and labor force participation rate. If it significantly exceeds expectations (strong employment+wage heat), it will strengthen the hawkish expectations of the Fed, put pressure on stocks and bonds, and strengthen the US dollar; If it is significantly lower than expected (weak employment+rising unemployment rate), the expectation of interest rate cuts will be strengthened, and risk assets are expected to benefit. The overall implied volatility of the market is moderate, but it has a greater impact on interest rate sensitive sectors.
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