AB Kuai.Dong
AB Kuai.Dong|Aug 03, 2026 02:33
Yen appreciation panic is shaking global markets—are we witnessing a new Plaza Accord? Both Wellington Altus strategist and influencer ZeroHedge believe that in this U.S.-Japan joint rescue operation, the U.S. Treasury has started buying yen from the market. This indicates that the U.S. government understands that the current long-term interest rate trends are primarily driven by capital flows, not the inflation panic repeatedly hyped by Wall Street. Japan has now become the core of this issue. If Tokyo has to defend the yen, the Japanese Ministry of Finance might need to pledge or sell more U.S. Treasuries. When the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries starts selling, the long-end yields of U.S. bonds will be repriced. This is why the current situation seems far more than just an ordinary currency fluctuation. It looks more like a new Plaza Accord and the beginning of a Bretton Woods 2.0 system. Since the 1980s, Japan has been at the heart of global yen carry trades, exporting savings overseas, suppressing global yields, and helping sustain a financial order built on cheap leverage and central bank interventions. A large number of investors believed the yen would continue to depreciate and interest rates would remain low, borrowing yen to buy U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and related deposits that were expected to appreciate. But with the end of Japan's quantitative easing policy, the era of yen carry trades is coming to an end. In the future, interest rates will increasingly be determined by capital markets rather than central banks. The pressure is further exacerbated by large tech companies shifting from being savers to credit demanders. These companies, which once absorbed long-term assets, are now issuing bonds to finance AI infrastructure, data centers, chips, and energy projects—another factor driving up long-term yields. Meanwhile, investors, facing Japan's rising long-term interest rates and the yen's appreciation, are being forced to tighten their leveraged investments to cover yen margin calls.
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