Market Emergencies ——Trump suddenly changed his face in the early hours of the morning: We won't attack Iran anymore, will we immediately open air to Hormuz? How much does it affect the price of Bitcoin? After waking up, I saw this message sent by Trump. Trump posted a message on social media with a lot of information: the United States is "ready for the highest level of military strike after World War II," but Iran and other Middle Eastern countries "request a temporary suspension of attacks" because the agreement framework has been reached. The core consists of two sentences: the Strait of Hormuz is immediately and completely opened, and Iran ends its nuclear threat. Then Trump said: Agree to cancel the attack. Israel also signed it. Translated into plain language: The knife holder is on the neck. If we can negotiate, we won't cut it. If we can't negotiate, we can cut it at any time. What does this mean for the market? In the past six months, the Strait of Hormuz has become the lifeline of global energy. One fifth of the global oil trade passes through there, and once it is blocked, oil prices will take off directly, inflation expectations will explode, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and all risk assets will be dragged away. Now Trump suddenly says' immediately open up completely ', and oil prices are likely to fall in response. Inflation expectations have cooled down, risk appetite has rebounded, and Bitcoin, US stocks, encrypted assets, etc. will all breathe a sigh of relief in the short term. The impact of the US Iran ceasefire on the subsequent price of BTC: Short term excess, but the strength depends on the speed of oil price decline. If WTI quickly falls below $80, BTC has a chance to take advantage of the situation and rebound above $64000, testing the resistance zone at $65000. But in the medium term, this is not a "fundamental positive" for Bitcoin, but a "temporary suspension of macro pressure". The real direction choice still needs to wait for the release of CPI data next week. Geopolitical emotions can be temporary, but not lifelong. The real big funds will not re-enter the market just because of Trump's tweet. They will wait until oil prices really come down, CPI is really lower than expected, and the agreement text is really made public before taking action. So BTC can experience a short-term emotional rebound, but don't take geopolitical news as a trend signal. Trump hurriedly called for a ceasefire, but not everyone was happy about the news. In the past few months, the market has been tormented by "stop and go" tactics. Every time the wind is released, it should be relaxed and funds should be pursued; Dragging and dragging again, cutting flesh out again. Going back and forth a few times, the allocation funds dare not move anymore. The true value of this message lies in its ability to land, which is a turning point. If it's stuck, it's a bigger hole. Who is betting that the agreement will really land, and who is betting that Trump will stand up again? Discuss your judgments and opinions in the comment section. I am all ears and listen attentively.