SPCXB SPCX faces its first $100 billion sell-off pressure post-IPO. What will Elon Musk do? @elonmusk The first quarterly report will be released after market close on August 4, and up to 911.5 million shares will be unlocked on August 6, equivalent to 1.43 times the IPO public offering volume. Based on the stock price of $108.37, the potential market value of sellable shares is approximately $98.8 billion. ① Fundamentals: Starlink solely supports the valuation 2025 revenue is projected at $18.674 billion, with a net loss of $4.937 billion. Connectivity/Starlink contributes $11.387 billion in revenue and $4.423 billion in operating profit. Meanwhile, the AI business generates $3.201 billion in revenue but incurs a loss of $6.355 billion. Q2 market expectations are around $6.8 billion in revenue and an EPS loss of approximately $0.29. ② Unlock pressure: Not a cliff, but a conveyor belt. After the first batch on August 6, there will be multiple rounds of staggered unlocks from August to December. Following the Q3 earnings report, an additional supply of approximately 1.3 billion shares may be added. Even if the initial sell-off is absorbed, the ongoing unlock expectations will continue to limit valuation expansion. ③ Who might sell? Employees and early investors are the primary short-term potential sellers. Musk holds approximately 6.419 billion shares, controlling about 84.4% of voting rights, locked for 366 days with no early release, making him unlikely to be a source of sell-off pressure in the short term. Key takeaway: What truly determines the stock price isn’t just whether the earnings report beats expectations, but whether Starlink’s user base, ARPU, and profit realization can offset the continuously increasing stock supply. A strong earnings report might trigger a rebound, but a weak report combined with actual sell-offs could lead to a second round of valuation re-pricing. It’s not advisable to go all-in on a single direction before the event; focus on observing post-unlock trading volume and the actual scale of sell-offs. SPCX’s first earnings report is about to reveal a $100 billion unlock looming.