Phyrex|8月 01, 2026 10:07
I’ve talked about this topic before. If you’re earning from U.S. Treasury bond yields, it mainly depends on the current U.S. monetary policy. Generally, high yields like this often occur during the U.S. high-interest-rate cycle. In plain terms, that’s when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates or hasn’t fully entered a rate-cutting cycle yet. During these times, interest rates are indeed high, making it a good time to buy long-term bonds, like 20- or 30-year U.S. Treasuries.
However, the best strategy is often to hold the position until the next interest rate hike cycle. That’s because the later stages of a rate hike cycle usually transition into a rate-cutting cycle, which in most cases isn’t favorable for the U.S. dollar. In other words, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan (RMB) might depreciate. So even if you’re earning 5% interest, the profits might not be as high when converted back to RMB.
But if you’re holding for the long term, like until the next Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, when the U.S. dollar appreciates against the RMB, then you not only earn from the interest rate but also from the exchange rate gains. That’s why, since last year, I’ve been recommending that friends with spare cash who don’t plan to use it in the next few years consider buying long-term bonds.
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