The truly excellent trader combines predictive ability with opportunistic trading Many traders have heard a saying: I never predict the market, I only trade according to the trend This sentence sounds reasonable, but I think it's only half right. A truly excellent trader is not completely unpredictable, but rather establishes probability judgments about the future, waits for market validation, and finally executes trades accordingly. Prediction and following the trend have never been in opposition, but rather two inseparable links in the trading system. Many people misunderstand the word 'prediction'. Prediction is not about guessing the rise and fall of stocks, nor is it about fantasizing about being able to accurately buy the bottom and escape the top. The true prediction is based on macroeconomic factors, market cycles, on chain data, capital flows, technological structure, and market sentiment, establishing a probability model about the future. For example, will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? Will ETF funds flow in or out in the next few days? Have long-term holders started selling? What is the probability of Bitcoin breaking through key resistance levels? These studies are essentially predicting the future. If traders really 'don't predict', then why study CPI, non farm payroll FOMC、 On chain data, ETF fund flows, and global macroeconomics? Because the ultimate goal of all research work is to improve the probability of success in future judgments. The truly complete transaction process, in my opinion, should be as follows: The first step is to establish probability judgments on future trends through market research, data analysis, and AI assisted research. The second step is to wait for market trends to validate your judgment, rather than rushing to enter the market. Step three, after confirming the trend, execute the trading plan according to the trading system and complete the transaction. This means that prediction determines direction, and trend determines execution. Predictions tell us which direction to focus on, while opportunistic trading determines when to enter and when to exit. Excellent traders do not immediately trade just because they make predictions; Similarly, one will not completely give up on prediction and only wait for the K-line to tell oneself the answer. What is truly important is to combine the two and apply them together. With the development of the market, I believe traders have gained another new data source worth paying attention to: Prediction Market. In the past, we mainly relied on news, research reports, on chain data, technical analysis, and market sentiment to establish judgments. And predicting the market provides another way to observe the market. It cannot tell us what will definitely happen in the future, but it can reflect the collective expectations of market participants for future events. For example: What is the probability that the market believes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next time? What is the probability that the market believes BTC will break through a key price? Which team is more likely to win the World Cup in the market's opinion? These pieces of information essentially reflect market consensus, and market consensus itself is a data worth studying. Therefore, I prefer to define Prediction Market as: A new data source for the trading research system. It is not a replacement for technical analysis, nor is it a replacement for on chain data. Instead, it adds a new dimension of observation for traders beyond the traditional research system. In the future, I will also try to incorporate more data from Prediction Markets into my research framework. For example, after completing macro analysis, on chain analysis, and AI analysis, I will further observe and predict the probability pricing of the market for the same event, and then comprehensively form my own judgment. In the end, I will still only execute according to my own trading system. Predicting the market is not responsible for making decisions for me, it only helps me understand how the market views the future. The more thorough the research, the more objective the judgment; The more objective the judgment, the more confident the transaction execution will be. In the future, I will start recording some of the public predictions on the ForeGate platform and personally try to verify the price predictions of Bitcoin on the ForeGate platform. If the predictions are correct, I can still make another profit. Contract trading and prediction markets will earn together, and if we lose, we will lose together. I also agree. It seems that this operation can achieve two goals with one stone, isn't it more interesting? Of course, the risk has also increased a bit! The reason is not because it can tell me the answer, but because it provides a platform for publicly recording and verifying predictions. I hope that every viewpoint of mine can be recorded, verified, and reviewed, rather than explained afterwards. For traders, what is truly worth establishing is not a "always correct" persona, but a trading system that can be constantly researched, predicted, validated, and iterated. In the future, I will also share more research on predicting the market and how it can be combined with BTC, macro analysis, AI research, and trading systems. I hope to explore this new research direction with everyone. If you are also interested in market forecasting and trading research, please feel free to communicate with me. In the future, please also check out the ForeGate forecasting platform that I am currently using: https://go. (foregate.com)/rq5nFhj Think with probability and pursue higher certainty. ----Mr. Xiaolong, August 1, 2026