**[HTX DeepThink: Weakening Forward Guidance Fails to Reassure Markets, Fed Credibility Becomes Core of Risk Asset Pricing]** Deep Tide TechFlow News, July 31 – HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that global risk assets remain under pressure this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made his first attempt to weaken forward guidance, aiming to make market pricing a more direct mechanism for economic feedback. However, the market did not interpret the rise in long-term interest rates as a natural tightening of financial conditions but rather as a resurgence of inflation risks and a decline in the Fed's policy credibility. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.2%, the dollar weakened, and U.S. stocks retreated, reflecting that investors are beginning to demand higher risk premiums rather than betting on improvements in economic fundamentals. The core conflict in the current market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "whether the Fed still has the ability to control inflation." Although Warsh stated that the market's tightening of financial conditions has partially replaced rate hikes, he has remained ambiguous about whether further rate hikes are necessary, leading the market to question the Fed's policy execution capabilities in a high-inflation environment. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed up energy prices, further reinforcing inflation expectations and increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in September and December. For U.S. equities, the continued rise in long-term interest rates means that technology growth stocks still face valuation compression pressures. The core logic behind the previous AI rally was built on low discount rates and high growth expectations, but the sustained rise in risk-free rates will increase the discount rate for future cash flows, putting pressure on high-valuation sectors. Therefore, until earnings are realized, AI, semiconductors, and high-beta tech stocks may continue to exhibit high volatility. The crypto market is also affected by macro liquidity. Although mainstream assets like BTC have not yet shown systemic risks, tightening dollar liquidity and rising real interest rates typically suppress risk appetite, with capital tending to flow toward cash and short-duration assets. If the Fed ultimately chooses to rebuild policy credibility through rate hikes, the crypto market may face continued valuation pressure in the short term. Conversely, once inflation is brought back under control, risk assets may usher in a new round of liquidity recovery. Overall, the market's current focus is no longer on interest rates themselves but on central bank credibility. In the coming weeks, inflation data, energy prices, and speeches by officials ahead of the September FOMC meeting will be key variables determining the direction of global risk assets. *Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.*