Why is it extremely accurate to predict the bottom of BTC using "mainstream mining machine prices" based on previous bear market reviews? Electricity bills are hard cash costs that miners cannot reduce through imagination. When the current price of BTC falls below the break even line of the main mining machines, it will inevitably trigger miners to surrender and liquidate, thereby forcing the absolute bottom of the cycle. Looking back at the first two bear markets: At the end of 2018: $3122. At that time, the main model of the entire network, the Ant S9, had a shutdown price concentrated between $3000 and $3500 under a $0.05 electricity bill. At the end of 2022: $15476. At that time, the main models S19/M30S on the entire network had shutdown prices ranging from $14000 to $16000 under a $0.05 electricity bill. Calculated based on the current mainstream electricity bill of 0.05 USD/kWh for compliant mines worldwide: 1、 Mainstream mining machinery price stratification Current main models (S21/S21 Pro/M60): The shutdown price is approximately $45000- $55000. Top tier water-cooled and flagship model (S21 XP Hyd): The shutdown price is approximately $32000- $40000. 2、 Bottom price range prediction Initial support zone: The price of $48000- $55000 has fallen into this range, and mainstream miners (S21, etc.) will face widespread losses in the current period. The growth of computing power across the network will stagnate, and high debt mining companies will begin to liquidate their holdings. This is an area where long-term funds can start building bottom positions in batches. Extreme liquidation zone: $38000- $45000. If a black swan event or extreme liquidity tightening occurs and the price breaks through the main shutdown price, the vast majority of medium cost mines will completely shut down and liquidate. Referring to history, the moment when mainstream miners are "wiped out" is the absolute bottom of the cycle. 3、 Bottom check confirmation signal Don't guess the bottom out of thin air, focus on three on chain and mining indicators: After the appearance of a dead cross on the Hash Ribbon, a new golden cross (representing the miner's surrender) appears. The mining difficulty has experienced a significant negative decrease (single occurrence>5%) for more than 2 consecutive times. After a sharp decline, the Miner Reserve began to stabilize. As long as these three signals appear one after another and the price falls within the above-mentioned shutdown price range, the macro bottom is basically declared established.