彼得兔|Jul 31, 2026 01:59
Back in the video on July 1st, I mentioned that BTC would close July with a green candle and set the first rebound target at 66,900. Later, as everyone saw, BTC rebounded to 66,956, missing the target by less than 100 points. What's worth noting is that this prediction was made 30 days ago.
The July 1st video had 20,000 views, but I estimate very few people actually caught this wave of growth. After all, when the market was shouting about breaking below 50K, suddenly someone saying, 'Big rebound starting, July's monthly candle will close green,' seemed so out of place and laughable. But facts proved that the market ultimately sided with me.
Why did I choose to predict a rebound when most of the internet was bearish below 50K? The core logic lies in BTC's reaction when it touches major Gann angle lines during a bear market cycle. Almost no one online talks about Gann angle lines, but sometimes the things that are overlooked can play a key role at critical moments.
As shown in Figure 2, during the last bear market, BTC rebounded 46.48% after first breaking below the 2/1 line, 27.81% after breaking below the 3/1 line, and 43.53% after breaking below the 4/1 line.
When testing key levels for the first time, if it's a false breakdown, it often leads to a significant rebound. Even if the weekly candle breaks below directly, after stabilizing, it often produces a decent oversold rebound.
Now look at Figure 3. In this cycle, BTC rebounded 38% after breaking below the 2/1 line. Later, the 2/1 line became a support-resistance flip level, and after rising to the 2/1 line, it faced precise pressure and continued to drop to the 3/1 line. But this time, it didn’t break through the 3/1 line directly, so I judged that the probability of a rebound here was high.
Has the rebound ended now? I don’t think it’s over yet, because the current rebound magnitude and duration haven’t fully matched the level it should correspond to.
Before the monthly candle closes tomorrow morning, if BTC can break through 65,800–66,200 and stabilize above, then 62,742 might be the correction low point. In that case, BTC could directly push above 70K in August.
Even if it can’t stabilize in this range in the short term and later breaks below 62,742, it’s still likely just a correction for the 57,800–66,942 rise. After finding the correction low point, I believe BTC will continue upward.
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