子棋(重生版)|Jul 30, 2026 13:09
The section marked by the red circle in the chart is a classic bearish continuation pattern, commonly known as a bear flag.
Looking at the candlestick structure, after the sharp drop caused by the previous large bearish candle, there hasn’t been a strong bullish engulfing reversal with high volume. Instead, we’ve seen several weeks of tiny-bodied doji candles and small bullish candles.
This weak sideways movement with an upward tilt indicates that funds attempting to buy the dip are extremely hesitant, and the bulls have no intention of taking the initiative to attack.
Based on historical price movements, this kind of sharp drop followed by weak weekly rebounds tends to be highly destructive.
Take a look back at the 2018 drop below $6,000 and the resistance near $30,000 after the major crash in 2022—both followed the same playbook.
The intentions of the big players are crystal clear: use the sharp drop after distributing at high levels to create panic, then deliberately pause near what seems like a key support level.
By maintaining a prolonged narrow-range consolidation, they repair severely oversold technical indicators while creating the illusion of a bottom that won’t break for retail traders.
When market sentiment becomes numb at this level and retail traders start feeling safe and enter to bottom-fish, a massive pool of long stop-loss orders accumulates below.
From the market structure analysis, the most likely scenario is that prolonged consolidation will eventually lead to a sharp drop.
This weak resistance won’t hold for long, and it often ends with an accelerated downward plunge that breaks the deadlock, hunts stop-losses below $60,000, and completes one last deep panic-driven shakeout.
In terms of trading, abandon any fantasies of heavily buying the dip at this level. This area is purely a highly deceptive bull trap and offers no risk-reward advantage.
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